Difficult to say. Every boat and load is different.
But if it gets on plane, I'd estimate somewhere in the 10-15 mph range.
If it doesn't plane, somewhere around 8 mph.
My 8 HP johnson gets my 12' springbok with only me in it on plane and I'd guess around 14-15 mph. Put a second 200lb guy in it and we're plowing water.
My 12 is a little heavier than a bare hull though:
When it was a bare hull and only me in it it would jump on plane immediately. Now it takes a little bit longer, but it will plane.
I'd say pick up the bigger boat if you want it and try the 8 HP. If it doesn't do what you want, just find a 9.9-15 HP johnson and sell the 8 HP to help finance the bigger outboard.
You can also do the same if you add more weight to the 14 later on and it gets too heavy for the 8 HP to push it to the speeds you want.